Transatlantic defense cooperation has been marked by a shared commitment to international security in order to strengthen and ensure global stability. NATO, since its founding, has served as the primary organization for coordinating defense policies between the United States, Canada, and Europe. The alliance has evolved to face contemporary threats such as terrorism, cybersecurity, and the military assertiveness of emerging powers such as China and Russia.
The 2024 European elections were a crucial event for the future of the European Union and, by extension, for transatlantic defence cooperation. The rise of radical right-wing parties in several EU member states raises significant concerns. These parties, often skeptical of NATO and the EU, advocate more nationalist and sometimes isolationist policies. With greater representation in the European Parliament or national governments, it is possible that the EU’s internal cohesion will be undermined, making it difficult to formulate common defense policies and work with NATO. For example, leaders such as Marine Le Pen and Matteo Salvini, who have expressed some skepticism about NATO, emphasizing the need for greater national sovereignty at the expense of multilateral commitments.
A fragmented EU with internal disagreements could weaken its position as a reliable defense partner for the US. The EU’s ability to contribute to joint missions, as well as to the financing of collective defense projects, could be significantly reduced.
In the U.S., the 2024 presidential election will have a profound impact on the country’s foreign and defense policy. There is currently a strong commitment to NATO in order to strengthen the military presence in Europe and support efforts to counter Russian influence. However, the possible election of Donald Trump, with a more unilateral approach and less committed to traditional alliances, could transform this dynamic.
During his first term, Trump repeatedly criticized NATO allies for failing to meet their financial obligations and even suggested that the U.S. might reconsider its commitment to the alliance if the allies did not increase their defense spending (or contribute at least 2% of GDP). In 2018, Trump declared that NATO is great, but it helps Europe much more than it helps us, that the EU was created to take advantage of the US, and he made harsh criticisms of the allies’ investment in NATO (particularly, Germany).
Trump’s possible re-election could thus lead to a more unilateral approach and less committed to traditional alliances, transforming the transatlantic dynamic. A lesser U.S. commitment to the alliance could lead to reduced military and financial support, forcing European allies to take greater responsibility for their own defense. This shift could be particularly challenging for NATO’s European members, which have historically depended on U.S. military power.
The combination of the European and U.S. elections presents both challenges and opportunities for transatlantic defense cooperation. On the one hand, the rise of the radical right in Europe and a possible change in U.S. policy could weaken the alliance by reducing the ability to jointly respond to global threats. On the other hand, these changes can also encourage European states to strengthen their internal cooperation and increase their investments in defence, becoming more self-sufficient and resilient partners.
Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s Secretary General, said that while Trump has made threats to allies if they do not meet the 2% of GDP, NATO is as important to Europe as it is to the US. The U.S. has 31 allies, something Russia and China don’t have, and besides, “the country [the U.S.] has never fought a war alone.”
These dynamics can stimulate a renewed debate about the future of NATO and the need to adapt the alliance to meet the threats of the 21st century. Implementing policies that promote solidarity, resilience, and innovation in defense can strengthen transatlantic cooperation, regardless of political changes in the U.S. and Europe.
It is a very delicate time for the EU due to the war in Ukraine and the consequent Russian threat, as well as all the current geopolitical situations and it is urgent to strengthen European security and defense, as well as to strengthen the alliance with NATO. Transatlantic defense cooperation is facing a period of uncertainty due to political changes on both sides of the Atlantic. The future of transatlantic defense will depend on the ability of leaders on both continents to recognize and respond to these dynamics with wisdom and strategic vision.
References:
Davis, J. H. (2018). Trump Warns NATO Allies to Spend More on Defense, or Else. The New York Times. Available here: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/02/world/europe/trump-nato.html
Psara, M. & Jones, M. G. (2024). Stoltenberg ‘confident’ US will remain a committed NATO ally after presidential election. EuroNews. Available here: https://pt.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/03/11/stoltenberg-confiante-de-que-os-eua-vao-manter-se-empenhados-na-nato
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